If Present Trends Continue, That'll Be the First Time

Trends are fickle. They seem unstoppable, but something happens. They end up
falling by their own weight, they get tired, or someone comes up with a
better idea. They aren’t irresistible forces after all. They get overtaken by events.

That’s why the patent office should never close.

The ancient Persian proverb says, “Even this shall pass away.” The smart money
says, long term bet against the trend.

Everybody thought in mid-2008 that prices of oil will always go up. Then a sudden
decrease in demand reversed that trend, to the dismay of OPEC. Six months later
the price of a barrel went down by two thirds. So is that a new enduring trend?

Don’t count on it.

Oil is our main problem to be solved. We need an (over used term) paradigm
shift. We need a way out. Existing alternative fuels don’t seem to have enough horse
power.

A good concept is “creative destruction.” That’s when a category or an industry
becomes obsolete. Disruption takes tolls. But after time something new takes its
place, at different places and workers with different skills.

If there were a way to harness all the talents of our private sector’s
entrepreneurship and creativity, we would come up with brilliant, breakthrough
answers. Imagine you are on a team whose mission is to supplant oil with
something better. You have no restrictions, no boundaries. You could tap into all
the greatest brains in history---Edison, Newton, Bill Gates, da Vinci, and all those
hidden inventors working in their garages.

What would they come up with? A bigger windmill won’t cut it. We can’t just muddle through. Some people out there are out to get us. We must have ideas and will power.


So will this be the first time that present trends will continue, that we’ll forever be
dependent of oil? Three hundred million Americans can’t let that happen. Twenty
years from now will we be able to look back and say we rose to the occasion, or that
we went quietly into the night?

What will that be? A marketing man’s dream; a needed product that works all the
time. A simple idea, found everywhere, and cheap!